India Outlook, Fiscal 2022

Five Growth Premises for Fiscal 2022 as per CRISIL

Weak base: An 8% contraction in GDP in Fiscal 2021 will give a statistical push to growth next fiscal.

Global upturns: Higher Expected global growth in the calendar year 2021 (world GDP by 5%*, advanced economies 4.3%**, emerging economies 6.3%**) should lift exports.

Covid-19 curve: India is seeing a fortuitous mix of a flattening curve and learning to live with the virus, the rollout of vaccinations, and herd immunity. These should broaden growth next fiscal, especially in the services and unorganized sectors.

Fiscal push: Stretch in fiscal glide path and focus of the Union Budget for next fiscal on Capex are expected to have a multiplier effect on growth.

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Source: Crisil